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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

24.84%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

24.72%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

24.29%

decreased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0244
15.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0543
29.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9309
400.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0583
-1.76*

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days