S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.84%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
24.72%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
24.29%
decreased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0244 | 15.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0543 | 29.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9309 | 400.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0583 | -1.76* |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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