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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

17.84%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

17.88%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Month

18.04%

decreased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5567
6.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0460
26.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9896
549.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4460
3.91***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days