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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

38.70%

increased by 1.62%

1 Week

38.21%

increased by 1.13%

1 Month

36.90%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0526
15.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8758
103.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0406
8.36***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0168
5.36***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0284
3.87***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9662
115.69***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days