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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

22.60%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

22.65%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

22.82%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9524
10.35***
αARCH0.0432
9.70***
βGARCH0.9497
186.73***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.69

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9524
10.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0432
9.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9497
186.73***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.69

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days