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S&P GSCI Cotton Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

19.70%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

19.79%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

20.15%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~97 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9538
10.41***
αARCH0.0434
9.71***
βGARCH0.9495
186.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.65

0.993

Persistence

97d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9538
10.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
9.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9495
186.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.65

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days