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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

25.59%

increased by 0.81%

1 Week

25.59%

increased by 0.81%

1 Month

25.60%

increased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9533
10.33***
αARCH0.0434
9.69***
βGARCH0.9495
186.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.70

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9533
10.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
9.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9495
186.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.70

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days