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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

25.52%

increased by 0.83%

1 Week

25.55%

increased by 0.86%

1 Month

25.65%

increased by 0.96%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.44 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~92 daysδ = 1.44 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0163
5.01***
αARCH0.0495
9.08***
βGARCH0.9505
182.69***
γleverage-0.0481
-1.04
δpower1.4368
6.80***

0.993

Persistence

92d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0163
5.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0495
9.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9505
182.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0481
-1.04
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4368
6.80***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

92 days