CBOE Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	126
αARCH	0.0317	1.71*
βGARCH	0.8720	45.44***
γleverage	0.0954	4.49***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0182	0.37
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0147	2.71***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9853	153.10***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0317	1.71*
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8720	45.44***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0954	4.49***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0182	0.37
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0147	2.71***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9853	153.10***

V-Lab

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF Analyses