Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
136.06%
increased by 25.30%
1 Week
135.12%
increased by 24.36%
1 Month
131.64%
increased by 20.88%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 7.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 35.3688 | 1.43 |
| αscore | 0.0797 | 5.80*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9867 | 99.80*** |
| νDF | 7.3939 | 1.17 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 35.3688 | 1.43 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0797 | 5.80*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9867 | 99.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3939 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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