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Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

136.06%

increased by 25.30%

1 Week

135.12%

increased by 24.36%

1 Month

131.64%

increased by 20.88%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 11, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 7.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run35.3688
1.43
αscore0.0797
5.80***
βpersistence0.9867
99.80***
νDF7.3939
1.17

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

35.3688
1.43
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0797
5.80***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9867
99.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3939
1.17

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days