Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
153.93%
increased by 37.92%
1 Week
151.60%
increased by 35.59%
1 Month
144.21%
increased by 28.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0084 | 8.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0858 | 6.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8735 | 44.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0241 | 3.83*** |
| γ2 | -0.0341 | -4.29*** |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0084 | 8.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 6.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8735 | 44.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0241 | 3.83*** |
| γ2 | -0.0341 | -4.29*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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