Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
165.29%
increased by 47.11%
1 Week
163.13%
increased by 44.95%
1 Month
155.25%
increased by 37.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 11, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6217 | 3.92*** |
| αARCH | 0.0516 | 2.49** |
| βGARCH | 0.9000 | 61.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0589 | 1.92* |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6217 | 3.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0516 | 2.49** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9000 | 61.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0589 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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