V-Lab
Sequoia Global Value ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
10.88%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
11.07%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Month
11.65%
decreased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.5875 | 7.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.3277 | 4.22*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0515 | 0.72 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0629 | 0.84 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8611 | 5.05*** |
0.751
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5875 | 7.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3277 | 4.22*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0515 | 0.72 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0629 | 0.84 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8611 | 5.05*** |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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