V-Lab
Sequoia Global Value ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
11.85%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
12.09%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
12.37%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9082 | 9.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1291 | 1.44 |
| βGARCH | 0.6433 | 4.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0148 | -0.50 |
0.772
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9082 | 9.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1291 | 1.44 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6433 | 4.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0148 | -0.50 |
Persistence:
0.772
Half-life:
3 days
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