V-Lab
Sequoia Global Value ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.26%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
12.54%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
12.88%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8678 | 9.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1204 | 1.32 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6687 | 4.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0334 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
0.789
Half-life:
3 days
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