V-Lab
Sequoia Global Value ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.46%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
12.35%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
12.25%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 6.85 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5915 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.1220 | 1.39 |
| βGARCH | 0.6920 | 6.16*** |
| νDF | 6.8476 | 0.27 |
0.692
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5915 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1220 | 1.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6920 | 6.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8476 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.692
Half-life:
2 days
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