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Renatus Tactical Acqu Corp I GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

4.37%

increased by 0.31%

1 Week

4.62%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

5.52%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Renatus Tactical Acqu Corp I GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.4117
1.89*
αscore0.1463
8.26***
βpersistence0.9990
1,693.22***
νDF2.9861
13.32***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.4117
1.89*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1463
8.26***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,693.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.9861
13.32***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days