Renatus Tactical Acqu Corp I AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
8.78%
increased by 6.31%
1 Week
8.80%
increased by 6.33%
1 Month
8.86%
increased by 6.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1521 | 2.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8400 | 19.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.1396 | -0.66 |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1521 | 2.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8400 | 19.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1396 | -0.66 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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