Renatus Tactical Acqu Corp I Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
1.88%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
1.60%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
1.46%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.1475 | 2.56** |
| αARCH | 0.2129 | 2.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2731 | 1.47 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 7.1032 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | -18.4530 | -1.32 |
| γ3 | 32.0399 | 3.70*** |
| γ4 | -51.4682 | -3.45*** |
0.486
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1475 | 2.56** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2129 | 2.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2731 | 1.47 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 7.1032 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | -18.4530 | -1.32 |
| γ3 | 32.0399 | 3.70*** |
| γ4 | -51.4682 | -3.45*** |
Persistence:
0.486
Half-life:
1 days
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