Renatus Tactical Acqu Corp I Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
3.21%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
3.32%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
3.37%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5731 | 2.52** |
| αARCH | 0.2003 | 2.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2840 | 1.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -52.0379 | -2.97*** |
| γ2 | 85.2965 | 3.14*** |
| γ3 | -75.6973 | -3.36*** |
| γ4 | 92.5365 | 4.10*** |
| γ5 | -81.8330 | -3.16*** |
| γ6 | 46.0125 | 2.52** |
0.484
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5731 | 2.52** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2003 | 2.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2840 | 1.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -52.0379 | -2.97*** |
| γ2 | 85.2965 | 3.14*** |
| γ3 | -75.6973 | -3.36*** |
| γ4 | 92.5365 | 4.10*** |
| γ5 | -81.8330 | -3.16*** |
| γ6 | 46.0125 | 2.52** |
Persistence:
0.484
Half-life:
1 days
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