Renatus Tactical Acqu Corp I Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
2.47%
1 Week
2.38%
1 Month
2.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0148 | 1.02 |
| αARCH | 0.2517 | 6.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7483 | 16.40*** |
| γleverage | -0.3289 | -1.86* |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 1.06 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0148 | 1.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2517 | 6.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7483 | 16.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3289 | -1.86* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.06 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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