Renatus Tactical Acqu Corp I EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
2.96%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
2.93%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
2.80%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 223 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~223 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0226 | -0.22 |
| αARCH | -0.0859 | -0.38 |
| βGARCH | 0.9969 | 93.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.1671 | 0.24 |
0.997
Persistence223d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0226 | -0.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | -0.0859 | -0.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 93.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1671 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
223 days
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