V-Lab
Pacer Metaurus Nq100 DIV 600 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.25%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
22.12%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
22.11%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7839 | 14.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0939 | 4.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0348 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1101 | 1.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8899 | 2.14** |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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