V-Lab
Pacer Metaurus Nq100 DIV 600 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.22%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
22.52%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
23.10%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5840 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0935 | 1.20 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7908 | 6.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -7.9037 | -2.55** |
| γ2 | 12.4805 | 2.80*** |
| γ3 | -6.3326 | -2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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