V-Lab
Pacer Metaurus Nq100 DIV 600 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.41%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
22.18%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
21.44%
decreased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4133 | 4.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0802 | 6.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9638 | 161.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0586 | 1.82* |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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