Skip to main content
V-Lab

Pacer Metaurus Nq100 DIV 600 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

22.41%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

22.18%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Month

21.44%

decreased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Pacer Metaurus Nq100 DIV 600 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4133
4.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0802
6.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9638
161.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0586
1.82*

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days