V-Lab
Princes Group PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.73%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
39.64%
increased by 4.77%
1 Month
46.80%
increased by 11.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4595 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6405 | 2.12** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1750 | 2.05** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1074 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
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