Princes Group PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.11%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
39.59%
increased by 11.40%
1 Month
51.38%
increased by 23.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5238 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6420 | 2.09** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1661 | 1.95* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.7759 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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