Princes Group PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.30%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
31.85%
increased by 5.27%
1 Month
35.66%
increased by 9.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4310 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2321 | 3.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6685 | 8.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7327 | 1.94* |
Persistence:
0.669
Half-life:
2 days
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