V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.43%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
3.65%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
4.41%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0035 | 9.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8395 | 71.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3096 | 10.95*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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