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PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

3.43%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Week

3.65%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

4.41%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0035
9.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8395
71.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3096
10.95***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

122 days