V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.82%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
4.11%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
4.99%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8368 | 65.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2861 | 24.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2870 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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