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V-Lab

PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

3.82%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

4.11%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

4.99%

increased by 1.03%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8368
65.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2861
24.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2870
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days