Skip to main content
V-Lab

PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

3.06%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

3.21%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

3.72%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1528
4.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1425
31.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9828
266.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1158
12.74***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days