V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.06%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
3.21%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
3.72%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1528 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1425 | 31.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9828 | 266.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1158 | 12.74*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
Other PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - February Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs