V-Lab
Ops eCom SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
179.65%
1 Week
180.47%
1 Month
183.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2015 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1069 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1641 | 3.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7213 | 14.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.2279 | 2.68*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 7.9548 | 4.17*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9923 | 50.13*** |
0.999
Persistence1069d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1641 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7213 | 14.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2279 | 2.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.9548 | 4.17*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9923 | 50.13*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1069 days
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