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Ops eCom SpA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

179.65%

decreased by 30.40%

1 Week

180.47%

decreased by 29.58%

1 Month

183.72%

decreased by 26.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ops eCom SpA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 7, 2015 to Jul 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1069 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1069 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.1641
3.18***
βGARCH0.7213
14.39***
γleverage0.2279
2.68***
λ₁tau intercept7.9548
4.17***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9923
50.13***

0.999

Persistence

1069d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1641
3.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7213
14.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2279
2.68***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

7.9548
4.17***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9923
50.13***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1069 days