V-Lab
Ops eCom SpA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
175.13%
decreased by 30.41%
1 Week
176.13%
decreased by 29.41%
1 Month
180.04%
decreased by 25.50%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2015 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 452 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~452 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7296 | 1.71* |
| αARCH | 0.2894 | 4.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7091 | 10.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1566 | -1.77* |
| γ2 | 0.2066 | 1.70* |
| γ3 | -0.0661 | -1.24 |
0.998
Persistence452d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7296 | 1.71* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2894 | 4.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7091 | 10.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.1566 | -1.77* |
| γ2 | 0.2066 | 1.70* |
| γ3 | -0.0661 | -1.24 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
452 days
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