V-Lab
Ops eCom SpA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
181.42%
decreased by 29.84%
1 Week
181.49%
decreased by 29.77%
1 Month
181.75%
decreased by 29.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2015 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 159 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~159 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6174 | 2.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1621 | 2.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7278 | 13.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.2116 | 1.74* |
0.996
Persistence159d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6174 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1621 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7278 | 13.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2116 | 1.74* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
159 days
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