V-Lab
Ops eCom SpA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
215.64%
decreased by 63.89%
1 Week
212.57%
decreased by 66.96%
1 Month
201.30%
decreased by 78.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2015 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-lifev = 2.76 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 40.7098 | 0.66 |
| αARCH | 0.2081 | 13.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9815 | 36.34*** |
| νDF | 2.7635 | 12.23*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 40.7098 | 0.66 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2081 | 13.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9815 | 36.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7635 | 12.23*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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