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V-Lab

Nice ONE Beauty Digital Mark GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026

1 Day

28.35%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

28.69%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

30.00%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Nice ONE Beauty Digital Mark GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 2025 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.4777
6.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0484
16.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9968
309.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7570
6.05***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

218 days