V-Lab
Nice ONE Beauty Digital Mark GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
28.35%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
28.69%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
30.00%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2025 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.4777 | 6.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0484 | 16.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 309.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7570 | 6.05*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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