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V-Lab

YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

43.24%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

43.66%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

44.61%

increased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5282
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0249
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9443
0.00

Persistence:

0.528

Half-life:

1 days