V-Lab
YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
48.54%
decreased by 22.84%
1 Week
59.31%
decreased by 12.07%
1 Month
68.71%
decreased by 2.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 102% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4903 | 78.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 40.21*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 20.8392 |
Persistence:
0.740
Half-life:
2 days
Other YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs