V-Lab
YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.24%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
43.66%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
44.61%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5282 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0249 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9443 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.528
Half-life:
1 days
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