V-Lab
YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
53.99%
decreased by 4.92%
1 Week
64.19%
increased by 5.28%
1 Month
68.32%
increased by 9.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.68) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.0791 | 18.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3241 | 13.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1562 | 10.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.6768 | 7.07*** |
Persistence:
0.480
Half-life:
1 days
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