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V-Lab

YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

53.99%

decreased by 4.92%

1 Week

64.19%

increased by 5.28%

1 Month

68.32%

increased by 9.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.68) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.0791
18.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3241
13.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1562
10.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.6768
7.07***

Persistence:

0.480

Half-life:

1 days