V-Lab
YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
76.96%
decreased by 21.22%
1 Week
75.05%
decreased by 23.13%
1 Month
72.70%
decreased by 25.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2531 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3552 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4211 | 2.02** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.6694 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
0.776
Half-life:
3 days
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