V-Lab
YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
62.68%
decreased by 13.40%
1 Week
69.03%
decreased by 7.05%
1 Month
75.21%
decreased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 12.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 24.0366 | 6.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3218 | 3.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7474 | 19.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 12.6286 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.747
Half-life:
2 days
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