V-Lab
YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
55.74%
increased by 4.28%
1 Week
64.59%
increased by 13.13%
1 Month
72.98%
increased by 21.52%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 23.2222 | 6.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3219 | 3.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7517 | 20.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 13.1278 | 0.62 |
Persistence:
0.752
Half-life:
2 days
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