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V-Lab

YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

77.99%

decreased by 24.91%

1 Week

78.84%

decreased by 24.06%

1 Month

79.90%

decreased by 23.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 12.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

25.6746
5.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3629
3.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7860
20.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

12.1964
0.77

Persistence:

0.786

Half-life:

3 days