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V-Lab

YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

55.74%

increased by 4.28%

1 Week

64.59%

increased by 13.13%

1 Month

72.98%

increased by 21.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

23.2222
6.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3219
3.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7517
20.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

13.1278
0.62

Persistence:

0.752

Half-life:

2 days