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V-Lab

YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

62.68%

decreased by 13.40%

1 Week

69.03%

decreased by 7.05%

1 Month

75.21%

decreased by 0.87%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax MSTR Performance & Income Target 25 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 12.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

24.0366
6.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3218
3.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7474
19.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

12.6286
0.64

Persistence:

0.747

Half-life:

2 days