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MacroGenics Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

74.29%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

74.25%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

74.09%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MacroGenics Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-lifev = 4.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst21.2711
0.93
αARCH0.0428
2.73***
βGARCH0.9789
49.46***
νDF4.2394
0.98

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.2711
0.93
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0428
2.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9789
49.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2394
0.98

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days