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V-Lab

MacroGenics Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

75.79%

increased by 0.68%

1 Week

76.45%

increased by 1.34%

1 Month

78.95%

increased by 3.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MacroGenics Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 10, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 0.99 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 daysδ = 0.99 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0630
1.35
αARCH0.0444
2.99***
βGARCH0.9556
58.23***
γleverage0.1734
0.48
δpower0.9934
3.49***

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0630
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0444
2.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9556
58.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1734
0.48
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9934
3.49***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days