MacroGenics Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
72.01%
1 Week
68.93%
1 Month
62.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 10, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.97 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4077 | 1.88* |
| αARCH | 0.2480 | 11.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6853 | 22.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.0059 | -0.17 |
| δpower | 0.9746 | 2.95*** |
0.883
Persistence6d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4077 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2480 | 11.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6853 | 22.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0059 | -0.17 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9746 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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