V-Lab
Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
2.75%
increased by 1.51%
1 Week
2.12%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
1.60%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5864 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0003 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0256 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0074 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0002 |
Persistence:
0.599
Half-life:
1 days
Other Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs