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V-Lab

Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

2.75%

increased by 1.51%

1 Week

2.12%

increased by 0.88%

1 Month

1.60%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5864
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0003
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0256
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0074
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0002

Persistence:

0.599

Half-life:

1 days