V-Lab
Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.63%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
4.92%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
5.11%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0391 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5063 | 10.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2510 | 2.34** |
Persistence:
0.632
Half-life:
2 days
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