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V-Lab

Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

4.63%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

4.92%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

5.11%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0391
6.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5063
10.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2510
2.34**

Persistence:

0.632

Half-life:

2 days