V-Lab
Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
4.81%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
5.10%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
5.20%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9531 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1918 | 1.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2103 | 0.42 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0257 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.402
Half-life:
1 days
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