Skip to main content
V-Lab

Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

4.87%

increased by 0.43%

1 Week

5.15%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

5.24%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Nomura Tax-Free USA ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1099
11.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2374
1.71*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3072
2.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.1690
0.40

Persistence:

0.307

Half-life:

1 days