Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
56.80%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Week
56.68%
decreased by 2.23%
1 Month
56.21%
decreased by 2.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 202 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~202 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0169 | 4.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0480 | 5.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9185 | 148.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0601 | 3.40*** |
0.997
Persistence202d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0169 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0480 | 5.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9185 | 148.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0601 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
202 days
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