Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

56.80%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Week

56.68%

decreased by 2.23%

1 Month

56.21%

decreased by 2.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 202 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~202 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 125% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0169
4.43***
αARCH0.0480
5.40***
βGARCH0.9185
148.12***
γleverage0.0601
3.40***

0.997

Persistence

202d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0169
4.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0480
5.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9185
148.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0601
3.40***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

202 days