V-Lab
Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.20%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.62%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
2.77%
increased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1815 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4253 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 46.9808 | 1.56 |
| γ2 | -99.8916 | -2.31** |
| γ3 | 121.8201 | 5.58*** |
| γ4 | -123.7034 | -6.58*** |
| γ5 | 72.0981 | 4.36*** |
Persistence:
0.425
Half-life:
1 days
Other Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs