V-Lab
Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2.01%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
2.32%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
2.44%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1846 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4569 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 37.9451 | 1.42 |
| γ2 | -81.8487 | -2.09** |
| γ3 | 105.3965 | 5.17*** |
| γ4 | -115.8772 | -7.39*** |
| γ5 | 73.8027 | 5.37*** |
Persistence:
0.457
Half-life:
1 days
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