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V-Lab

Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

3.41%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

3.43%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

3.49%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9874
3.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0154
0.50
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9249
5.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0377
-0.07

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days