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V-Lab

Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

3.67%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

3.97%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

4.40%

decreased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0865
1.99**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1937
5.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8412
9.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6460
6.90***

Persistence:

0.841

Half-life:

4 days