V-Lab
Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.71%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
2.86%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
3.12%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0443 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2049 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8815 | 22.61*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5458 | 3.22*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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