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V-Lab

Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

2.71%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

2.86%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

3.12%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0443
3.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2049
6.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8815
22.61***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5458
3.22***

Persistence:

0.881

Half-life:

5 days