Skip to main content
V-Lab

Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

2.42%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

2.61%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

2.95%

increased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 25, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0417
3.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1951
6.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8856
25.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8320
3.00***

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days