V-Lab
Jpmorgan Active High YLD ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3.67%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
3.97%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
4.40%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0865 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1937 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8412 | 9.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6460 | 6.90*** |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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