V-Lab
Inmocemento S A MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.60%
increased by 0.62%
1 Week
27.53%
increased by 3.55%
1 Month
28.83%
increased by 4.85%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 116 | |
| αARCH | 0.3812 | 4.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2204 | 2.75*** |
| γleverage | -0.1942 | -1.86* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.3948 | 1.07 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.505
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3812 | 4.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2204 | 2.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1942 | -1.86* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.3948 | 1.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.505
Half-life:
1 days
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