V-Lab
Inmocemento S A Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
23.66%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
25.81%
increased by 3.03%
1 Month
27.07%
increased by 4.29%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1803 | 5.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.2412 | 2.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3544 | 2.31** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1244 | 1.20 |
0.596
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1803 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2412 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3544 | 2.31** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1244 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.596
Half-life:
1 days
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