V-Lab
Inmocemento S A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
26.16%
increased by 1.84%
1 Week
28.74%
increased by 4.42%
1 Month
31.05%
increased by 6.73%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2024 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 4.77 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0591 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.2067 | 1.27 |
| βGARCH | 0.7248 | 5.24*** |
| νDF | 4.7733 | 0.59 |
0.725
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0591 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2067 | 1.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7248 | 5.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7733 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.725
Half-life:
2 days
Other Inmocemento S A Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities