V-Lab
Inmocemento S A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
22.29%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
26.35%
increased by 3.40%
1 Month
30.35%
increased by 7.40%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0846 | 6.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1828 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7660 | 22.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7123 | 2.19** |
Persistence:
0.766
Half-life:
3 days
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