V-Lab
Inmocemento S A GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
23.06%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
27.34%
increased by 2.97%
1 Month
30.87%
increased by 6.50%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 4.75 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.1194 | 1.82* |
| αARCH | 0.2052 | 1.23 |
| βGARCH | 0.7177 | 5.04*** |
| νDF | 4.7521 | 0.58 |
0.718
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1194 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2052 | 1.23 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7177 | 5.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7521 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.718
Half-life:
2 days
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