V-Lab
Inmocemento S A APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
23.06%
1 Week
25.66%
1 Month
28.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4808 | 1.00 |
| αARCH | 0.1708 | 2.48** |
| βGARCH | 0.6455 | 3.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.1074 | 0.47 |
| δpower | 1.2492 | 1.34 |
0.786
Persistence3d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4808 | 1.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1708 | 2.48** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6455 | 3.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1074 | 0.47 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2492 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.786
Half-life:
3 days
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